The Midwest is the heart of America, both in history past and in the political present and future.
Ridiculed by many on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, as “Fly Over” states, the facts are clear that these inland states fill a “wall.” The Midwest has been a major factor in many past elections with the potential to set the national political trend now and into the future.
The Midwest has historically been the legacy of eleven GOP presidents – Abraham Lincoln from Illinois; Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, William Howard Taft, Warren G. Harding from Ohio. Benjamin Harrison from Indiana. Herbert Hoover of Iowa. Dwight D. Eisenhower of Kansas. and Gerald Ford of Michigan. Also, two Republican presidential candidates were from Kansas, along with Eisenhower — Alf Landon in 1936 and Bob Dole in 1996.
At the same time, Midwestern Democrats who have been Presidents include Harry Truman of Missouri and Barack Obama of Illinois, and others who have run for president include James Cox of Ohio in 1920. Adlai Stevenson II of Illinois in 1952 and 1956 .Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota in 1968. George McGovern of South Dakota in 1972. and Walter Mondale of Minnesota in 1984.
We've also seen several Vice Presidents from the Midwest, including six from Indiana, two from Illinois, two from Minnesota, and one each from Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Michigan.
It is also a fact that Ohio and Missouri have been particularly critical “swing states.” Ohio was very important to the Republican Party, as every President of his party won Ohio, and when Gerald Ford, who succeeded to the Presidency under the terms of the 25th Amendment, lost election to a full term in 1976, a a major reason why he lost was that he lost Ohio by 1/4 of 1 percent (about 11,000 votes) to Jimmy Carter.
Missouri has been with the “winner” of every presidential election from 1904 to 2016, with only three exceptions: (1) 1956 when Missouri voted by a narrow margin of 2/10 of 1 percent, or about 4,000 votes, for Adlai Stevenson II vs. Dwight D. Eisenhower? (2) In 2008 when Missouri voted by a similarly narrow margin of 1/7 of 1 percent and a similar 4,000 votes for John McCain over Barack Obama. and (3) in 2012, when Missouri voted by a wide margin of 9.4 percent and more than 258,000 votes for Mitt Romney over Obama.
The importance of the Midwest in the 2020 Presidential Election and Midwestern gubernatorial and state legislative elections in the 2018 Midterm Elections is self-evident. It is known that if Hillary Clinton had won the electoral votes of Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), a total of 44 more electoral votes, she would have won the election by 271 electoral votes. (Joe Biden might have won Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016.)
Potential Midwestern candidates vying for the Presidency in 2020 include the following Republicans: outgoing Governor John Kasich of Ohio and Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana; and the following Democrats: Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. And one never knows if others will emerge next year, as every presidential election seems to have surprises.
Many Midwestern gubernatorial races appear to be Democratic in Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota (only Minnesota currently has a Democratic governor). If Democrats prevail in November, the Midwest could transform American politics by shaping the redistricting of seats in state legislatures and the House of Representatives after the 2020 Census.
Considering how narrow margins in several Midwest states determined the results of the 2016 election, it would be foolish for any political observer to underestimate the importance of the Midwest, particularly given the history of that segment's impact. Thus, despite all the attention given to the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast presidential candidates, and the role of governors and senators from those departments, one can expect the Midwest to play an important role in American politics. in the long term future.
