Does “battle testing” matter?
This is something coaches love to talk about – especially those in the nation's power conferences. If playing a tough conference schedule really mattered, though, would it be Gonzaga who currently has a nationally-best streak of seven straight Sweet 16 appearances? Would the Zags make it to the NCAA Championship game twice in the last five tournaments?
Houston's non-conference schedule featured only three major tests: Alabama, Virginia and Saint Mary's, all set as top-five seeds. The American Athletic Conference has produced only one other NCAA Tournament team, Memphis, which the Cougars have played three times.
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There were three games against potential mid-major conference champions, including Oral Roberts and Kent State, two of the most dangerous double-digit seeds in the field.
There was plenty of room for Houston to breathe in the remaining games. We'll see if they needed to play more games that were competitive to be better prepared for what they're about to face in March Madness.
All-area team
G – Marcus Sasser, Houston
G – Souley Boum, Xavier
PF – Trace Jackson-Davis
PG – Jalen Pickett, Penn State
PF – Kris Murray, Iowa
The best first round game
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State
If you watched Toledo try to hold off the Golden Flashes in Saturday night's MAC championship game, you recognized that whoever had the misfortune of drawing Kent State had better be ready to score points. Many of these.
That could become a real problem for IU, which has suffered at least one scoring drought in each of its most recent games, and it could pay off if the Hoosiers struggle to be effective against Kent and star point guard Sincere Carry.
Indiana's Trace Jackson-Davis will try to advance beyond the first round of the tournament for the first time, and he wants to. And when he's playing for something he wants, he can be among the most entertaining players in college basketball.
SPECIAL OPTIONS: DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
Seeds very high
#1 Houston
The Cougars undoubtedly deserved the No. 1 regional seed, but were named the selection committee's No. 2 overall team despite playing in a meager American Athletic Conference that produced only one other NCAA Tournament team and had won just four of six games against NCAA tournament teams;
That was an important decision, because it meant Kansas' No. 3 overall pick had to be sent out of an area he could have traveled to by bus — heck, he could have almost walked all the way to Kansas City to play games in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight if he beat them.
KU has played 22 games against opponents that are in the NCAA Tournament field. The committee selected more than half of these groups. they must think they are good. KU won 15 of those games, a .672 hitting percentage.
Houston played nine games against the field and won seven, a .778 percentage.
However, three of Houston's wins were against double-digit seeds that earned automatic bids. Against what analysts call a “big field” — teams that would be in with or without automatic bids — Houston was just 4-2.
Talk about a small sample size.
There is no justified preference over a team with KU's accomplishments. The Jayhawks have won eight games against teams ranked in the top six rankings. That's more than Houston has against any tournament team.
MORE: Print the 2023 March Madness bracket here
Seeds too low
No. 7 Texas A&M
Maybe it's the vests? Maybe the selection committee just isn't on board with the whole 3-piece suit deal that coach Buzz Williams prefers for his sideline attire. Because this is the second year in a row, the Saints have a rough deal.
Last year was much worse. they were left out of the field even though 95 percent of their intended hooks were in the field. This time, they were the consensus No. 5 seed, but somehow they ended up here, with a potential second-round game that will rekindle a rivalry so famous it would be included in the musical “Best Little Whorehouse in Texas.” Most parenthetical stories happen organically, but with A&M being far from where it should be, this feels a bit contrived.
Texas A&M was 7-6 against Quad 1. The records of the four teams designated by the committee as No. 5 seeds were 5-6, 5-5, 5-5 and 2-3. The Aggies' projection metrics averaged the No. 4 seed and their results metrics also ranked No. 4.
Indeed, this program is used to doing its best work late in the season and dropping a few inexplicable losses along the way. But all games should count, including those played the day before Selection Sunday.
Upset special
No. 12 Drake over No. 5 Miami
The Bulldogs are a formidable defensive team that excels at controlling opponents on the perimeter, and that is an essential component of the Hurricanes' offense. The question is whether Drake's excellent D can contain a Miami team with such exceptional ability to attack off the dribble.
Drake destroyed each of its three Missouri Valley Tournament opponents in double figures, including a 26-point outburst of regular season champion Bradley in the “Arch Madness” finale in St. Louis.
Miami big man Norchad Omier injured his ankle in the Canes' loss to Duke in the ACC semifinals, so he will have less than a week to heal. It's uncertain whether that will limit him — or remove him — as part of the rotation.
RECORD HISTORY FROM SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 against 5
The best possible game
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas
The Longhorns play few boring games in the NCAA Tournament. A year ago, their second-round game against Purdue was a 3-point game with 90 seconds left after guard Marcus Carr nailed a 3-pointer before the Boilers made enough free throws to make things look manageable.
In 2021, it was the heartbreaking one-point loss to Abilene Christian in the first round. In 2018, it was an overtime loss to Nevada.
So it looks like we're saying Texas loses a lot of close NCAA games. But that's not really it. Just to tell you, the game is likely to be fun, especially with Xavier's dynamic offense paired with the group that just scored 76 on Big 12 regular season champion Kansas.
Xavier has the nation's No. 9 offense. Texas is No. 18.
Who doesn't want one of those?
The best matchup of potential players
Jalen Pickett, Penn State vs. Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M
Potential? To hell with it. Let's get right to it. These two guards will meet in the first round and they couldn't be more different. In fact, one of Williams' most important tasks in this game could be making sure Taylor isn't the one responsible for Pickett's defense as he drops into the mid-post.
Pickett is a truly unique player, at his best when he has his back to the goal and is scanning the perimeter for picks among the team's many capable 3-point shooters. Taylor is increasingly dynamic on offense and has scored 20 or more points seven times in the last 10 games.
To meet
Texas A&M sophomore guard Wade Taylor IV
Taylor became a unanimous All-SEC selection just two years after graduating high school as the nation's No. 119 player, which says something about his overwhelming confidence as a player.
He was a star at Lancaster High in Dallas and scored more than 2,000 points in high school. His 6-0 size may have been a hindrance to a more accurate prospect ranking, but it didn't stop him from excelling as a college prospect.
It also didn't stop him from talking a good game. When the Aggies earned a spot in the SEC Tournament title game for the second straight season, Taylor declared it was, “Just another chance to make history” and indicated that A&M would come out Sunday afternoon “and win another game “.
It didn't work out that way, but what do you want to bet he fully intends to take the Midwest region by storm?
Don't be surprised if…
Houston has a season devil coming off a second-round game.
No one knows if the second-round opponent will be Iowa or Auburn, but the Hokies have the nation's No. 3 offense and Auburn has tournament wizard Bruce Pearl on the bench. And we don't know if the Cougars will have full access to Sasser until then.
Houston looked lost against Memphis without him. That's the best word for it. They still have plenty of talent, but the confidence that carried them through the few tough times they faced this season seemed to be replaced by a sense of uneasiness.
It's obvious they need him to be great. But do they just need him to get to the “very good” level they'd need to reach to win a second-round game?
Sleep group
No. 13 Kent State
The Mid-American Conference had three terrific teams this season: Kent, Toledo, Akron, and it seemed likely that one of them would end up here. The Golden Flashes had to go through both others in the MAC tournament to reach the NCAAs and were impressive in the tournament played in Cleveland.
In the final, they scored 58 points in the second half of a game that was only one point at halftime. They shot 10 of 24 from 3-point range and 55.7 percent overall.
The 13-over-4 upset isn't as common as the almost clichéd 12-over-5, but Indiana will discover the need to be extremely serious in meeting the challenges the Flashes present.
Selection of the Final Four
Texas
In a region where the top team is dealing with a major injury, the third-best team is struggling on defense, the fourth-best team is inconsistent in the playoffs, and the fifth-best team will struggle to get out of the first round, the elimination process brings us to Texas.
Winning the Big 12 Tournament was like winning a mini-NCAA. The Longhorns had to beat a No. 1 seed, a No. 6 seed and an upset team in the span of three days. They've done it before and then fell in March Madness. And they have a tough road: probably A&M, Xavier and Houston. This is no fun at all.
It will be for us, though.
And for the Horns, if they get back to the Final Four for the first time in – geez, TJ Ford, was that so long ago? – 20 years, it will be a lot of fun.
