Last fall, Democrats scored major victories across the industrial Midwest, reasserting power in an area that had become increasingly favorable to Republicans — but the party still faces strong and sometimes worsening challenges in predominantly white, labor counties that will help decide the outcome of the next presidential election.
That's one of the conclusions of a new, relentless report by Democratic strategists about their party's vulnerabilities and opportunities in cities and counties hit hard by deindustrialization in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In the 2016 election, Democrats suffered shocking setbacks in many of these areas, but the party has worked to regain ground since then.
“Our brand is pretty damaged in these parts,” he warns the reportwork of the non-profit group American Family Voices, which assesses voters outside major metropolitan areas and refers to parts of the study as “Factory Towns.” “Voters are both cynical about what we're saying now and don't know everything the Democrats have accomplished that will directly benefit them.”
But, the report adds, pointing to recent legislative accomplishments, “Democrats have the best chance to make progress in these counties in a generation.”
The report, which also highlights Republican branding problems, was written by longtime Democratic strategist Mike Lux and is based on a December poll by Lake Research Partners led by Celinda Lake, a veteran pollster for the party.
He notes that President Biden — a Scranton, Pa., native who has long emphasized his affinity for blue-collar voters — won 2020 in part by narrowing Democratic margins in some of those districts, while Democrats they also uploaded below the ballot scored a string of clean wins last year. But Democrats have also had major upsets in the region, such as the Wisconsin Senate race, and Iowa remains a particularly bleak spot for the party.
Given this background, the report advocates the timely organization of investment in these areas. It also recognizes the difficulties of changing negative perceptions in a fragmented and diminished news environment and at a highly polarized time for the country.
Here's a look at some key findings and recommendations:
Beyond culture, the economy is the biggest problem for Democrats.
Republicans have tried to paint Democrats as extreme on cultural issues like policing and education. However, according to this report, Democrats are more vulnerable on issues of spending, taxes, government waste and inflation.
While “working-class people find civic and intellectual 'awakening' disturbing,” the report says, “Economic issues drive Democrats' problems in working-class states outside the metro far more than the culture war.”
A Democratic economic message — focused on attacking corporate greed, investing in manufacturing in the United States and pursuing an economy that works for everyone, not the “rich few” — tested better, in the Lake Research Partners poll, than a message from Republicans who liberals claimed were undermining “our way of life.”
A Republican message focused on the economy far outpaced the Democratic message on the issue. But the results varied by state, with voters in Michigan, for example, more receptive to the Democratic pitch than in other states, and notable warning signs for Democrats in Pennsylvania.
Mr. Lux wrote that “voters in these counties, including voters, independents and even some Democrats, see the economy with a much more Republican narrative than they did a year ago,” a sign that the TV ads that beat Mr. Biden Hyperinflation over the medium term was over, although inflation has now slowed slightly.
Both parties have branding issues.
Many voters surveyed in these “Factory Towns” are “deeply, deeply cynical” about both political parties, according to the report, with swing voters having the impression that both Democrats and Republicans are “too extreme ».
The most pointed argument against Republicans, according to the poll, was that they “side with corporations and CEOs and work for the rich.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are viewed “as weak and ineffective, especially when it comes to economic issues,” the report said.
The data found that Democrats struggled with the perception that a Democratic economic plan “doesn't exist or help the working families of regular people,” a claim that resonated with some Democratic and independent voters.
Democrats do have economic plans, but voters don't always know it.
Democrats can point to a long list of measures they say are intended to improve Americans' financial position, including the Inflation Reduction Act and massive investments in US chipmaking efforts.
The challenge, the report said, is to ensure that voters are aware of these developments and can connect the legislation to their daily lives.
“Most voters do not follow the national news or the details of the legislation, and many have yet to see the impact in their own lives,” the report said. “Working-class voters outside of major metro areas still live pretty tough lives, so we have to balance our history of success in politics with an acknowledgment of those tough times.”
The report also urged Democrats to combine traditional economic populist messages and policies with a strong emphasis on supporting small businesses, as well as unions.
“Most working-class people think of small business owners very much as part of the working class,” the report said. He added: “Democrats and advocates for progressive issues should always talk about how much they care about small business doing well and be specific about the ways they want to help the small business community.”
2024 looks competitive — and there is early interest in DeSantis.
The early presidential confrontations between Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, and Mr. Biden and Gov. Ron DeSandis of Florida, show a tight hypothetical race in those counties.
“A significant number of voters here will have at least an initial inclination to vote for Trump even if they don't like him all that much,” the report acknowledged.
Still, a close race at this point is notable given how hard Democrats fought in some of those counties.
Perhaps more revealing are the favorability numbers. Just 39% of voters had a favorable view of Mr. Trump, while 56% had an unfavorable view. Mr. Biden's overall numbers were better — 46 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable — although among voters with strong views, both men had weak numbers and ratings varied widely by state.
There is strong interest in Mr. DeSantis, who is widely seen as the strongest Republican challenger to Mr. Trump even though he has not announced a presidential campaign and remains untested on the national stage.
He had a net positive favorability rating — 42 percent to 37 percent — and was “surprisingly well-known, with only a fifth of voters having no impression of him,” the report said.
