Before Election Day, Brookings Metro asked whether white, working-class voters in embattled Midwestern swing state communities would decide the winner of the presidential race, as they did in 2016.
It almost happened. Had it not been for a large anti-Trump vote, particularly among African-Americans and wealthier, better-educated voters, Joe Biden would never have won his relatively narrow victories in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The electoral maps in these states weren't all that different in 2020 than they were in 2016. This time, Biden carried only nine of Michigan's 83 counties—down from seven held by Hillary Clinton in 2016. In Wisconsin, Biden won 13 of 72 counties in 2020, up only one from Clinton in 2016.
These similarities reveal that electoral polarization by community economic conditions was even more pronounced than in 2016. As a recent Brookings Metro article on the election noted, Biden's base resides in more populous, educated and prosperous communities that own the lion's share of today's economic action. That pattern was certainly true in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Biden won in their most affluent cities and suburbs, while Trump held the states' rural areas.
As in 2016, Trump also won many struggling older industrial areas that were once Democratic strongholds. Meanwhile, Biden was carrying a number of older industrial communities that had been turned into an economic corner — some that were once solidly Republican.
Table 1 shows the relative incomes and voting patterns of Michigan's non-rural, older industrial city-regions that have experienced long-term population loss, falling incomes and housing abandonment rates higher than the national average. All but one of these communities have median incomes below the national average.
Table 1. Trump Raised Republican Vote Shares in Many Economically Distressed Non-Rural Michigan Counties
| Michigan | 2019 Income / State Average | 2016 Cook PVI Score | 2020 margin of vote |
| Bay County | -11% | R +3 | R +17 |
| Berrien County | -2% | R +7 | R +7 |
| Calhoun County | -18% | R +4 | R +12 |
| Cass County | -8% | R +13 | R +29 |
| Genesee County | -15% | D +8 | D +9 |
| Isabella County | -26% | EVEN | R +3 |
| Jackson County | -18% | R +8 | R +19 |
| Lapeer County | -9% | R +14 | R +36 |
| Lenawee County | -17% | R +7 | R +20 |
| Midland County | 14% | R +10 | R +15 |
| Monroe County | -1% | R +7 | R +23 |
| Saginaw County | -18% | D +2 | D +1 |
| St. Clair County | -7% | R +11 | R +30 |
| St. Joseph County | -21% | R +12 | R +31 |
| Shiawassee County | -18% | R +5 | R +20 |
| Tuscola County | -21% | R +14 | R +39 |
| Van Buren County | -15% | R +5 | R +12 |
| Wayne County | -10% | D +20 | D +47 |
Except for the vote-rich communities of Wayne County (Detroit), Genesee County (Flint) and Saginaw County (Saginaw), Michigan's economically distressed older industrial centers went decisively for Trump. These are working-class communities that have struggled to replace lost manufacturing jobs, including union-heavy counties like Jackson, Monroe and Calhoun (home to Battle Creek, home of Kellogg's). Workers and voters in these places continued their rightward tilt in 2020, fueled by economic nostalgia, nativism and nationalist “Trumpism.” The most recent Cook Political Report the ratings—based on 2016 and previous elections—showed those communities lean Republican, but Trump widened the Republican margin in nearly all of 2020.
Biden's votes, on the other hand, generally came from better-off communities. In addition to the aforementioned African-American strongholds, Biden won Washtenaw and Ingham counties — thriving hubs of talent and knowledge anchored by the University of Michigan and Michigan State University. North of Detroit, affluent Oakland County — once reliably Republican — went to Biden, as did Leelanau County, a thriving resort and lifestyle community on Lake Michigan next to Traverse City. In fact, the entire prosperous Traverse City area of Northwest Michigan—again, once solidly Republican—became much more “blue” in 2020.
Biden also prevailed in several mid-sized industrial communities that have found ways to diversify their economies, create jobs in emerging sectors and attract and retain well-educated residents. These include Kalamazoo, Kent (home to a once solid Republican majority) and Marquette counties. A former industrial port, Marquette has fallen on hard times and is now a thriving lifestyle community anchored by a major regional university and a manicured Lake Superior waterfront.
Similar political and economic dynamics were at work in neighboring Wisconsin, which also swung to Biden this election. Trump easily won the state's rural areas and also carried Wisconsin's older industrial communities that are still reeling from long-term economic decline. Except for the African-American stronghold of Milwaukee, these are small- and medium-sized manufacturing communities that have consistently they lost their traditional industrial base. Following the Republican trend of recent years, they have become even stronger for Trump in 2020 than in 2016.
Table 2. Wisconsin's economically challenged communities favored Trump
| Wisconsin | 2019 Income / State Average | 2016 Cook PVI Score | 2020 margin of vote |
| Dodge County | -13% | R +13 | R +31 |
| Manitowoc County | -9% | R +7 | R +23 |
| Milwaukee County | -8% | D +17 | D +40 |
| Sheboygan County | 3% | R +8 | R +16 |
| Wood County | -10% | R +7 | R +19 |
| Kenosha County | -9% | D +2 | R +3 |
| Racine County | -4% | R +2 | R +4 |
These trends contrast with the 13 Wisconsin counties that supported Biden. Along with African-American Milwaukee County and smaller Rock County (home to Janesville and Beloit), where black voters turned out in record numbers, Biden trounced Trump in thriving Dane County, home to the state capital of Madison and the flagship University of Wisconsin. . of Madison technology driven economy it has spilled over county lines, contributing to Biden's victories in the surrounding Iowa counties of Sauk and Greene.
Biden also won resurgent Eau Claire (featured in my recent report A Vital Midwest: The Path to New a Prosperity), Lacrosse and Portage counties—all economic differences, regional economic hubs anchored by University of Wisconsin affiliate campuses. Biden also won relatively affluent Door County on Lake Michigan. Like Leelanau County in Michigan, Door County has become a resort, lifestyle, art and tourist area. Those, along with many heavily Native American counties in the North, gave Biden the narrow margin he needed to win over votes from Wisconsin's many rural counties and communities suffering long-term decline.
In both Michigan and Wisconsin, voting patterns based on the different trajectories of once-similar older industrial communities reveal stark asymmetries in economic opportunity and optimism about the future between Trump and Biden voters. These states are a microcosm of a deeper national divide—but they provide some evidence that the divide can be healed through long-term economic diversification and transformation.
Jack Farrell contributed to this post.
