Drought-stricken corn bends on August 30, 2012, in a field near Swisher. Iowa was in severe to extreme drought that year, with most of Iowa experiencing some level of drought this summer. (The newspaper)
Drought conditions have worsened rapidly across the Midwest in recent weeks — and it's uncertain how much rain will come the rest of this summer, experts said Thursday during a webinar hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several climate partners.
May and June are historically the wettest months for the Midwest, said Molly Woloszyn, the regional drought information coordinator for NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System.
However, most areas in the region departed from that, with much of Eastern Iowa receiving 4 inches less precipitation than normal.
Warmer than normal daytime temperatures are also intensifying dryness in the Midwest. Midday heat encourages water to evaporate from soils, contributing to low moisture levels across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kansas and eastern Nebraska.
As a result, conditions have rapidly worsened in the north central US since May. The worst of the drought has shifted east from the Great Plains into the Midwest.
About 64 percent of the Midwest is now in moderate to extreme drought. Nearly 90 percent of Iowa is in some kind of drought, according to Thursday's US Drought Observatory report.
Agricultural conditions have eased across the region, said Dennis Todei, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub.
Pasture and pasture conditions have deteriorated rapidly, forcing some Midwest ranchers to sell cattle. Only 24 percent of Iowa rangelands and rangelands are in good or excellent condition.
As corn crops enter their reproductive stage, called the tassel, in the coming weeks, drought conditions could affect their yield. Time will tell how soybeans fare as they enter their critical growth stages through August. Specialty crops throughout the region have suffered reduced or no yields.
The effects of the drought are spilling over into other industries.
The flow within the Mississippi River is shrinking.
In St. Louis, river water levels recently rivaled those of record drought years. Towing capacity for barges has been reduced by 10 percent to 20 percent to avoid grounding in the shallower waters, said Anna Wolverton, an Army Corps of Engineers meteorologist.
Increasingly, transportation in the Midwest relies on trains and semis — less efficient methods that could cause problems in the supply chain.
Some Midwestern urban areas have instituted watering restrictions to curb overuse amid shortages.
Hope for improvement — but uncertainty remains
Rains blessed parts of southern Iowa and northern Missouri last week, thanks to severe weather blowing through the region. It helped – but did not solve – drought conditions, crop stress, Mississippi River water levels and soil moisture levels in affected areas.
“We are not out of the woods. We will need more rainfall and we don't want warmer temperatures,” Todey said.
Next week, precipitation will move from Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas. Iowa may not get much in the same time frame – but, next week, there is a low chance of above-normal and near-normal precipitation across the Midwest.
Precipitation levels across the Midwest shouldn't deviate too far from normal until September, said Doug Kluck, director of central region climate services for NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
With luck, drought conditions will improve or disappear from Iowa.
El Niño, However, it throws more uncertainties into future weather projections. The phenomenon occurs when weak winds push warmer water toward the West Coast, which moves the Pacific jet stream south. As a result, the northern US is drier and warmer than usual, and the US Gulf Coast and Southeast are wetter than usual.
So far, temperatures in the Midwest have remained largely on par with seasonal averages. Due to El Niño, the central US may see milder temperatures this summer. The phenomenon could also dump more rain toward Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana and Michigan, Kluck said.
However, only time will tell how El Niño will affect the weather, with its impact likely affecting the climate in late summer, autumn and winter.
“(Experts) think El Niño is going to happen and it looks like it's going to happen with a vengeance in terms of being moderate to strong,” Kluck said. “It might be the key to everything.”
Brittney J. Miller is the Energy and Environment Reporter for The Gazette and a corps member of Report for America, a national service program that places reporters in local newsrooms to report on the hidden issues.
Comments: (319) 398-8370; brittney.miller@thegazette.com
