More ticks. More mosquitoes. Less snowmobiling and ice fishing.
These are just some of the climate impacts Midwestern states face in the coming decades, according to recently released Fifth National Climate Assessment.
The massive congressionally mandated report is released roughly every five years in an effort to track how climate change is affecting the United States and what policymakers can do to address the issue.
In addition to national trends, the report also summarizes findings for each U.S. census tract. Here is the review five key choices for the Midwest.
Big disruptions are coming to agriculture
The Midwest produces about a third of the world's corn and soybeans, and increasingly erratic weather will make that more difficult. The growing season is lengthening, summers are getting hotter, and rainfall is becoming more erratic, with rapid cycling between extreme wet and dry conditions.
Milder winters allow various agricultural pests (borerworms, weevils, etc.) to head north, putting further pressure on growers.
However, the report credits farmers and policymakers for taking proactive measures to address these problems. Practices such as cover crops, no-till farming, and more precise fertilizer application can help smooth out some climate-induced instability, making boom and bust cycles less severe. But farmers may have to accept reduced yields and reduced profits as a trade-off.
Ecosystems are being degraded
The natural environment is too responds to the changing climate, often for the worse. On land, some cold-adapted species such as American deer and monarch butterfly fight for survival as warm weather invaders invade. Fires are becoming more frequent, polluting the air and altering the landscape.
Floods and droughts, meanwhile, are stressing aquatic ecosystems. Popular species such as trout and trout are, in some cases, was becoming rarer as a result. Winter ice cover is decreasing, reducing opportunities for ice fishing and other recreational pursuits. As temperatures rise and ice weakens, drownings occur in winter is becoming more common.
Greater risks to public health
A warming climate is expected to worsen air quality in the Midwest. Higher temperatures mean more production of ground-level ozone, which causes various respiratory problems. A warmer climate also means more fires and more smoke pollution. Extreme heat events will lead to death and hospitalization.
But there will be smaller results as well. Warmer spring and fall temperatures mean more pollen and more intense allergy seasons. Oak pollen alone could lead to a 7% increase in asthma-related ER visits by 2050, according to the report. Heavier rainfall will lead to large floods like the 1997 Red River flood, as well as smaller more localized events that cost time and energy to manage.
Warmer winters mean more ticks and all the diseases they harbor. Already, the incidence of Lyme disease in the Midwest has increased about fivefold since 2000. Mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, Zika and others may become more common.
More infrastructure headaches
Changes in temperature and precipitation will put more strain on roads, bridges, dams, power grids and other pieces of vital infrastructure. Increased or decreased river flow in the Mississippi, for example, will reduce the number of transport ships that can travel on it. “Without coordinated adjustments to monitoring, water discharges and communications along the river, significant disruptions to traffic flow and the volume of goods transported are expected,” the report warns.
High temperatures reduce the carrying capacity of the power cable, while at the same time increasing the demand for air conditioning, increasing the chances of grid failure.
Medium hydrology
Total annual precipitation is expected to continue to increase in the Midwest, according to the report. But it will be concentrated in large floods interspersed with periods of drought. More will fall as rain and less as snow, with predictable consequences for ski resorts, snowmobile manufacturers and other parts of the winter recreation industry.
The average summer surface water temperature in Lake Superior has already risen by about 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1980, according to the report. The effects on the overall ecology of the lake are unknown.
