From Michigan to Nebraska, the Midwest is facing an early wildfire season

The Midwest received some much-needed moisture this week after a particularly warm and dry winter that hampered outdoor recreation and sparked an early spring wildfire season in many states.

Parts of the Midwest saw up to 24 inches of snow and rain by Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service. The powerful storm, moving west from New England, caused chaos on the streets and temporary power outage for hundreds of thousands of people.

But the rain is unlikely to break the drought that has gripped much of the Midwest, officials say, with some states already battling hundreds of wildfires even before spring officially began last week. Dry conditions and an overall lack of snow cover, they say, now threatens to extend the region's spring wildfire season well into the end of the year.

“We're seeing extreme fire behavior, red flag warnings in March that we don't normally see,” William Glesener, fire operations supervisor for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, said in an interview. “Most years in Minnesota, fire season starts sometime in April, maybe late March in southern Minnesota.”

A similar situation is happening in Wisconsin, said Kathryn Cole, a wildfire prevention specialist with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, noting that the state was battling hundreds of wildfires weeks before the start of peak fire season. “To date, we've had almost 300 fires across the state,” he said. “And the normal 10-year year-to-date average is about 40 fires.”

Firefighters in Michigan are too fighting the early flamesand Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen declared a state disaster last month after a large fire burned down more than 71,000 acres in 24 hoursdestroying at least two homes and forcing several residents to evacuate.

While wildfires are common in the Midwest, the region is not known for its fire season, which, compared to that of the American West, is relatively tame. Its humid climate and abundant vegetation usually prevent wildfires from raging out of control. But for decades, wildfire threats have been increasing in the Midwest and around the world, in part because of climate change, scientists say.

“We have to keep in mind that some amount of fire is natural and necessary, but that the fires that we've been seeing in the last – I would say the last 20 years or so – are really emblematic of a shift to a warmer climate. said Kristina Dahl, principal climatologist for the Union of Concerned Scientists' climate and energy program.

Wildfires in the Midwest, like much of the world, have declined in number, experts say, largely because of increased human development efforts, such as agriculture, which requires clear-cutting forests and artificial irrigation. But research also shows that larger and more intense wildfires are generally rising—meaning the fires that do ignite burn larger, hotter, and faster. They are also emerging in landscapes and times in which they were previously rare.

“The reduction in the number of fires is a strong finding globally, but it is one of the only measures of fire that is trending in a direction that would be positive for humans,” Dahl said. “If we look at the severity of the fire, if we look at the size of the fires, by all these other metrics … the fires are getting worse.”

The severity of the fires, in particular, is alarming, Dahl said, because intense fires can kill even the hardiest trees, and some forests simply don't recover.

For Midwest states, the evolving situation mostly means a longer fire season with fewer breaks. In particular, states like Minnesota and Wisconsin typically experience what's called a “bimodal fire season”—they see fires ignite in the spring and again in the fall, with relief during the summer months when the vegetation is greener.

But that has changed in recent years, Glesener said, amid a sudden drought covering much of the Midwest. Instead of two fire seasons, he said, Minnesota experiences one extended fire season that starts in the spring and ends by fall. That meant higher costs for the state to pay for things like extra hours for firefighters, he said. Already, the National Interagency Fire Center, which coordinates the national response to wildland fires, predicts high risk this spring for “significant wildfire” in the Midwest through at least May, with “below normal” rainfall expected.

As the situation has evolved, Minnesota fire crews have had to adjust their tactics, said Karen Harrison, a wildfire prevention specialist with the state Department of Natural Resources. Most notably, he said, the state is hiring its seasonal workers early and preparing to fight potential wildfires in more places.

Normally, wildfires in Minnesota follow the receding snowpack as it melts, moving from the south of the state to the north, Harrison said. This pattern provides some predictability and helps fire crews plan their suppression efforts. But with little to no snow this winter, he said, wildfires have broken out across the state, forcing crews across the state to be on alert.

Harrison said the state also had to rely more often on partnerships with federal agencies like the U.S. Forest Service to fill gaps during active years. Minnesota has increased its education efforts by warning residents not to burn their yard waste when there is no snow on the ground, he added. More than 90 percent of fires in Minnesota are caused by people, he said, and residents should contact their state authorities to obtain permits before burning yard waste.

Burning piles of leaves, brush and other yard debris is a common practice for Minnesotans in the spring when there is snow on the ground to prevent fire outbreaks. Between 2019 and 2023, the state issued about 30,000 permits to residents for this purpose, according to the Minnesota DNR.

Wisconsin is making similar adjustments, Koele said, and her agency is monitoring worker burnout. “That's obviously a concern of ours,” he said. “It's early in the season and potentially we could have a really long season … just making sure people get time off when we get a little reprieve here and there.”

Additional health costs should also be a concern for Midwesterners, Dahl said. The Midwest has seen some of the biggest increases in wildfire smoke exposure over the past two decades, he said, in part because of its proximity to Canada, where a record number of large wildfires have burned in recent years.

“This is really important because the more we learn about wildfire smoke exposure, the worse it looks,” he said. “We now know that it can affect pregnancy and has implications for preterm birth. It can affect cognitive abilities, breathing problems, and obviously it can make all kinds of underlying conditions worse.”

For now, Glesener said, it appears Minnesota can handle the new challenges, but that could change in the future as the state's climate changes.

“If we look 10 years out, 15 years out and take a crystal ball out, I think things are going to have to change … to maintain the current level of service that we provide for citizens in the state,” he said. “It's going to take effort not only from agencies and responders, but the public will have to start recognizing that maybe rotting or composting is a better tool for cleaning up and protecting their properties than, say, [open] combustion.”