It's officially NCAA Tournament week, with all the March Madness action kicking off Tuesday and Wednesday with the first four games. The bracket was officially released on Sunday, with 68 teams competing for a national title.
Here, we'll take a look at the games in the Midwest Regional, featuring Zach Edey and No. 1 Purdue along with some popular upset picks in McNeese and Samford.
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 MTST/Grambling
Can the Boilermakers overcome the demons of last year's loss to a No. 16 seed? Probably. They are 29-4 and have a potential national player of the year in Zach Edey. Braden Smith gives them a standout point guard to run the show and they have excellent wings. As long as Edey is doing what he's doing and the rest of the Boilermakers are shooting over 40%, they're going to be very tough to handle.
Our choice: Purdue on the 15th
Why; Purdue is vastly superior to almost every team they play, and they will come in especially focused as they exercise the 16-seed demons.
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU
TCU, by the data, is more efficient on both ends of the floor, a better rebounding team, though Utah State enters as the higher seed and with a bit of an edge after the Mountain West regular-season champions were projected by more. be 5, 6 or 7 seeds. One word to describe this matchup: Smashmouth. TCU has lost 10 straight tournament games and Utah State hasn't won in the NCAA Tournament since 2001.
Our choice: Utah State by 2
Why; TCU is arguably a worse draw than Purdue in the second round, but we'll go with Utah State's experience combined with TCU's inability to break through with a tournament win in its last 10 tries.
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese
McNeese is a very popular upset pick and for good reason. They slow the game down, play stingy defense and hit 38.8% of their 3s, which is tied for fourth in the nation. They are 30-3 overall, but their best wins came early in the season at VCU and Michigan. Gonzaga boasts the eighth-most efficient offense in the country, a top-15 two-point defense and rebounding and ball handling. Can he maintain that efficiency against a McNeese team that turns opponents over on 23% of possessions?
Our choice: Gonzaga with 10
Why; The pressure is undeniably on McNeese because he is a popular Cinderella choice. We're not buying it and think the Zags are coming in overlooked and underrated.
McNeese's Christian Shumate is blocked by TAMUCC's Stephen Giwa during the game at the American Bank Center on Monday, Jan. 22, 2024, in Corpus Christi, Texas.
© Angela Piazza/Caller-Times/USA TODAY NETWORK
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford
Samford is a popular upset pick in part because Kansas is 9-9 since starting the season 13-1. Jayhawks return Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. injury after both missed the Big 12 Tournament, but the Jayhawks struggled even when they were on the floor in February and early March. Kansas has a terrific interior defense, but ranks 210th in 3-point defense. If Samford, which is the eighth-best 3-point shooting team in the country, can get hot, they have a chance.
Our choice: Kansas from 6
Why; The Jayhawks defense may be too much for Samford. We could see this scare Kansas, but with Dickinson and McCullar back from injuries, Bill Self's team should win at least one tournament game.
No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon
Only Houston, Connecticut and Purdue (all 13-3) have been better on the road and at neutral sites this season than South Carolina (12-4). By the numbers, this is arguably the most even game in the opening two full days of the tournament.
Our choice: South Carolina from 3
Why; The Gamecocks' ability to win on the road. Oregon comes in riding high, but South Carolina presents some real challenges and might be a sleeper as a team that has 26 wins and only seven losses.
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron
There's nothing Creighton doesn't do well. She's 12th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 28th defensively, 3-point shooting, defense, rebounding, free throw shooting and taking care of the basketball. It's also big. That said, Akron does have four starters who were part of the 2021 team that nearly upset UCLA in the tournament. If Akron can keep the score low, they have a shot at it.
Our choice: Akron vs. 1
Why; A giant must fall, right? The Zips have a ton of tournament experience and we could see a scenario where Akron's tempo throws Creighton off the pace, and if the shots are falling early, Creighton could tighten up and play in Akron's favor.
14 Mar 2024; New York, New York, USA Creighton Bluejays guard Steven Ashworth (1) and center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) and forward Mason Miller (13) and guard Trey Alexander (23) react during the first half against the Providence Friars at Madison Square Garden.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Virginia or Colorado State
The Longhorns, one of the most solid offensive and defensive teams in the tournament, and will face either the elite defense of Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers or the Colorado State Rams, who belong to a deep Mountain West. Texas is led by Max Abmas, who has teamed with tournament favorite Oral Roberts to lead them to two wins at No. 15 in 2021.
Our choice: Colorado State by 3
Why; Momentum could favor the winner of Virginia State or Colorado, and we'll pick the Rams to come out of the top four and then upset Texas by a hair's breadth. It's hard to pick a tournament star like Abmas, but Niko Medved is an incredible coach and point guard Isaiah Stevens could match or surpass Abmas.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's
Here we have the third-best defensive team in the country facing the 314th-best offensive team (based on KenPom-adjusted ratings) in the nation going head-to-head. Tennessee seems destined for the Round of 32.
Our choice: Tennessee to 20
Why; They are favored by 20 and we think Vegas has that right. No one at Saint Peter's can stop Tennessee's Dalton Knecht.
March 15, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA Tennessee Volunteers players walk the handshake line after a loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bridgestone Arena.
Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
