ONE federal report released Tuesday takes a broad look at the ways climate change is already hurting the US — including the Midwest, often considered a climate paradise.
The National Climate Assessment, published about twice a decade, is a catalog of the effects a warming world is having on the country's economy, ecosystems, culture and people.
As other climate reports have previously indicated, the assessment sends a stark message: without rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the situation will continue to worsen.
Steve Vavrus, a Wisconsin state climatologist, said the report grounds readers in important historical context, reminding us how far our climate has deviated from normal.
The report emphasizes that it is not too late to start climate solutions, providing a bright spot in a difficult picture.
Here are five suggestions from the Midwest chapter.
Extreme weather fluctuations wreak havoc on crops, communities
The Midwest's role as an agricultural powerhouse will continue to be threatened by climate change, the report says.
The impacts on agriculture and food production are “(some) of the most visible and worrisome aspects of climate change,” John Baker, chief scientist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said during a briefing Wednesday on the report.
Although average corn and soybean yields have increased in recent decades across the region, these short-term gains will eventually be overshadowed by long-term losses from extreme rainfall fluctuations.
Earlier snowmelt is expected to cause wetter springs and drier summers are also expected, both of which can damage crops. For example, floods and extreme drought have reduced corn yields in some locations in the region by as much as 37% in recent decades.
The economic risks extend beyond farms. The U.S. now experiences a billion-dollar weather disaster about once every three weeks, compared to about every four months in the 1980s.
Just this year, Wisconsin has experienced five such disastersincluding summer drought and damage from hail storms and high winds, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
And it's not just disasters that could cost us. The report noted that increased winter conditions and reduced snow and ice cover in the upper Midwest could affect recreation and tourism, which can affect the economy and even regional culture.
More: As Wisconsin's climate grows warmer and wetter, favorite winter activities could be in jeopardy
Climate-related death, disease could increase without action
Without more efforts to reduce emissions and promote climate resilience, the Midwest will face more climate-related deaths and illnesses as extreme heat events increase, according to the report. Extreme heat affects Wisconsinites more than any other natural disaster, according to the state health department.
Midwesterners can also expect more exposure to wildfire smoke, according to the report, raising air quality concerns similar to last summer. Warmer temperatures, drier periods and more erratic winds cause fires to burn faster and push smoke farther.
More: 'This is on our doorstep now': Smoke from wildfires reminds us that climate change is affecting human health
Greater precipitation can cause health threats such as drowning and injury, mold exposure, and mental health effects related to stress and economic losses. The amount of precipitation falling in the most intense events increased by nearly 50 percent in the Midwest between 1958 and 2021, according to the report.
Environmental justice, indigenous knowledge is the focus
The report took a critical look at the ways in which some groups bear more of the burden of climate change, as well as how Indigenous knowledge could chart a more sustainable path forward.
Communities of color and lower-income people face greater climate risks due to systemic racism and other discriminatory policies, the report says.
For example, prejudicial housing policies forced Black Milwaukeeans into neighborhoods prone to flooding, treeless, and exposed to air pollution from nearby industry.
More: Many Milwaukeeans live on a heat island and 'we can't air-condition our way out of it'
More: Interactive map identifies areas of Milwaukee most at risk of flooding, associated health risks
The report noted that warming weather and changes in hydrology have harmed wild rice, which is culturally important to tribal communities throughout the Midwest.
Unexpected climate changes can affect the traditional ecological knowledge that indigenous communities have developed over generations.
However, this knowledge can also be a road map for environmental solutions. Indigenous communities have taken the lead in restoring fire-adapted ecosystems, maintaining diverse crops and protecting the landscape, the report said. The College of Menominee Nation in Keshena received a shout out to undertake a research project to better understand changes in plants on the Menominee Reservation.
More: Knowing the nature of Great Lakes tribes could be key to navigating climate change. Will enough people listen?
The Great Lakes, the Mississippi River basins face a multitude of threats
The Midwest's most valuable water resources are already showing the impact of climate change.
The Great Lakes saw low water levels between 1998 and 2013 and high water levels since 2015. That variability is partly due to warmer lake temperatures, precipitation intensity and lack of ice cover, the report said. Each extreme comes with its own challenges: low water poses risks to shipping and ports, and high water accelerates shoreline erosion and coastal habitat loss.
Rising lake temperatures combined with declining winter ice cover are also expected to result in a loss of suitable fish habitat. Lakes also continue to be threatened by invasive species and harmful algal blooms.
More: Blue-green algae blooms once unheard of in Lake Superior are a sign that 'things are changing', experts say
The Mississippi River also sees changes, including extreme swings between wet and dry conditions.
More river flooding is likely along the upper Mississippi by the end of the century, which is already having detrimental effects on ecological resources such as floodplain forests.
More: Mississippi River floodplain forests are dying. The fight to bring them back.
Increases in precipitation also result in more phosphorus and nitrogen being flushed into the river, which expands the Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico.
Opportunities exist for the Midwest to lead the way in resilience
While the report contained sobering information, it also focused on ways communities can adapt in the face of a changing climate.
The Midwest is at the forefront of climate-smart agriculture, which encourages farmers to implement practices such as crop rotation and grazing that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and offset the effects of climate change on their land.
The federal government invested heavily in the idea in the Federal Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. It will be important to closely monitor the effectiveness of these practices as more farmers try them, said Dennis Todei, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub.
More: 'Once-in-a-lifetime' federal money comes to Wisconsin farm conservation programs
The Midwest can also accelerate by increasing green infrastructure to handle extreme rainfall and embrace renewable energy, Vavrus said.
Heidi Roop, an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota who runs the school Partnership for Climate Adaptationshe said Wednesday her hope is that Midwestern countries will continue to lead both in mitigating the harms of climate change and in adapting to its already existing effects.
“This will define how we experience climate change and crucially, WHERE is exposed to the risks and impacts of a warmer world,” he said.
Madeline Heim is a Report on America corps reporter who writes about environmental issues in the Mississippi River Basin and throughout Wisconsin. Contact her at 920-996-7266 or mheim@gannett.com.
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