Nikki Haley was in Iowa a week ago for the launch of her “Women for Nikki” campaign. I always find it amusing when the candidates hold events at the aptly named Temple of Performing Arts in Des Moines, but Haley's performance was one of the best political performances I've ever seen at the venue – and I've seen dozens over nearly 20 years. When he finished, he drew a standing ovation from the crowd of perhaps 80 women and a few men.
Against a blue background behind alternating Iowa and US flags, perhaps 15 women sat behind Haley in a show of support as she addressed the audience. I don't know who these women are, but I think I know these women. We have a large number of them in rural Iowa where I live. For the most part, they run the place. While juggling one or more jobs or small businesses and coordinating their children's activities, they still have time to volunteer in the community and maybe even teach Sunday School.
I've seen many presidential candidates in the Iowa caucuses over the years, but I don't think I've ever seen a candidate blend so seamlessly with his audience. Haley is clearly one of those women.
Before her speech ended, I realized that there are two natural “lanes” for Haley in the 2024 primary: women and foreign policy. And if women, like the women in the room that day, reach out and work their networks, he has a real shot at the nomination. And if all Americans see the need for someone who is truly capable of seeing our role on the world stage, he has an even better shot.
Her story is pure Hollywood. Challenges, trials, tribulations, mentors, guardians, and finally victory when he became governor of South Carolina. On stage, however, much of her pitch was Republican: Biden bad. Bad economy. Vigilance is poor. Rights are bad. Poor public education. Bad borders…
Yawn. But he has to touch all those bases, and a lot of the points he made were different than most Republican speeches I hear. First, transgender TikTok influencer Dylan Mulvaney has apparently emerged as social enemy number one.
“You have this man, dressed as a girl, making fun of women.” Hayley said. “That's it. And do you have companies that glorify this person? What are we doing? Who will fight for our girls?'
He talked about biological boys competing with girls in sports. Haley told the women in the room that this is the “women's issue of our time.”
If Iowans believe girls' sports are in danger, they will fight to protect them. As far as I can tell, Democrats have no view of the potential impact on girls' sports other than generally offering support to our transgender friends and family members.
Haley also spoke differently than any other Republican I've heard on abortion, saying there is a middle ground and that pro-choice and pro-life opponents need to understand that.
She said she was “pro-life” but doesn't judge anyone who is pro-choice any more than those who share her view. “What I mean is that this is a personal issue for women and for men … it should be treated with the respect it should be. I don't want unelected judges deciding something so personal.”
“We're not going to let this be a political football,” Haley said. “Let's let the states sort this out. If Congress decides to do it, don't get into that game by telling them, “How many weeks? How many weeks?” No, let's first understand what we agree on and then move on.”
Of course, Haley doesn't want abortion to be a political football — it's a losing proposition for Republicans. While some in the party may hold her position against Haley, most women in the room nodded in agreement. Haley seems realistic. These women are pragmatists. Besides, there were women in the room who had probably had abortions. If not, then they had family members or friends who did. As many Republican politicians today try to compete to prove they are the most pro-life, including wanting to criminalize women and doctors for performing the procedure, Haley's approach seems more nuanced, more in line with how many Americans believe.
Haley showed her most independent streak when she had tough words for Republicans, singling out men in the South Carolina legislature who stood in her way on issues of transparency, accountability and more. He said federal spending is out of control and that Republicans are just as responsible as Democrats.
He also made a pitch for a woman to be in the White House. “Women do things,” she told them. “Women are incredible when it comes to balance. We know how to prioritize. No matter what people say, we don't like drama and we're all about results.”
Haley also gave a strong foreign policy statement. He knows all the players and the international dynamic. He fully supported US support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. Some Republicans in Congress who cannot bend their knees to continued support for Ukraine will find her on the other side of the issue. So will potential foe Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis, who called it “territorial difference', before walking it back.
Haley speaks from experience, telling us that during her tenure at the UN, we had no better friend and ally than Ukraine. That they have always voted with us and that they are a freedom loving country. He told the crowd that this is not about Russia and Ukraine. This is about freedom, and if Russia wins, every authoritarian regime in the world will be emboldened.
This is Haley's second “stripe.” It has strong messages in both that will resonate.
Haley has received a lot review about her relationship with Donald Trump, and her changing positions on various issues. None of this will likely matter in the Iowa Republican caucuses. The entire Republican Party has problems with its relationship with Donald Trump and will likely continue to do so until the last rebels are in their graves. The commentators criticizing her today are writing for each other and the history books, not for the caucus audience.
What might matter, even though it shouldn't, are questions about her faith. Grown up Sikhs, some they say her decision to convert to Christianity was political. Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of Family Leader, an evangelical Christian group with significant political influence in Iowa, has distanced himself from Trump, which is significant. The support of the Leader of the Family will influence many Republican participants in the parliament. Haley might not be Christian enough for them, which is unfortunate. There should be no religious standard to hold political office. But that is not the Republican view. Here, Iowa lawmakers regularly tell voters that they govern from a “Biblical” perspective. Gossip abounds in our small towns about who is the “best” Christian.
The first money is for the House Leader supporting Haley's fellow South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who is black. Partly because of his faith and partly because Evangelical Republicans are tired of being called racist. Haley also controls the race frame, so we'll see what her faith thinks. And who do they think can beat Biden?
Polls and pundits give Haley a slim chance. I did too, before I saw her working in the room and heard her message.
FiveThirtyEight 2024 Republican Party Primaries voting released on April 12 provides the following approval numbers: former President Donald Trump (49.3%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis (26.2%), former Vice President Mike Pence (5.8%) and Haley (4.3%).
Pollsters know these numbers mean nothing more than a starting point. Iowa Republicans are pragmatic. While Trump is polling strongly, if it turns out he can't beat Joe Biden because few beyond his base will caucus for him. Trump is in serious legal trouble and things are only going to get worse. Trump didn't win Iowa in 2016. Evangelical darling Ted Cruz did. Pundits are acting as if DeSantis has already lost his luster. I saw DeSantis earlier this year at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in front of a crowd of over 1,000 people. Those Iowa Republicans loved him. DeSantis is by no means out, no matter what anyone says. I saw Pence speak to a room of about 60 a few weeks ago. If the event hadn't been hosted by Senator Joni Ernst, I doubt he would have been able to field a baseball team with the crowd that would have come.
Among the announced candidates, right now it looks like that opening could go to Nikki Haley or Tim Scott or someone who hasn't even entered the race. If either of them comes out of New Hampshire or Iowa, their home state of South Carolina could decide the race. But of course Trump is still hiding everything.
During her “Women for Haley” event. Haley didn't mention Trump directly, but did so obliquely.
“It's more than just the caucus. we need to elect someone who can win the general election. This calls for a new generation leader. This requires letting go of the baggage, drama and status quo of the past, and saying that we need to move forward and face these new issues without any distractions. It's going to take that, and the way you do it is to send an evil Republican woman to the White House.”
