The Midwest blackout is about renewables versus fossil fuels

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The Midwest has one impending power problemalthough experts do not agree on how big the problem is.

Recent reports from both regional and national grid organizations raise concerns about vulnerabilities in the electrical infrastructure system. At its core, they say, electricity supply is falling while demand is rising. They worry that there won't be enough power to meet consumers' needs, especially during extreme weather events such as winter storms or prolonged high heat.

ONE report by North American Energy Reliability Corp. he said he was “concerned that some areas are particularly vulnerable”. It identifies parts of the Midwest and Southeast power grid, of which Wisconsin is a part, as one of those areas.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, manages the network in 15 states spanning the north, center and south of the country, as well as one Canadian province.

The operator is not shy about the fact that there are some potential problems on the horizon if no changes are made.

“MISO's top priority is reliability for the 45 million Americans who rely on us,” spokesman Brandon Morris told IndyStar. “The power system is undergoing significant changes and this presents challenges and opportunities.”

Reports warn of credibility risks

These changes are driven by the transition away from fossil fuels such as coal and towards renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. The reports from both MISO and NERC raise questions about the future reliability of the grid amid this transformation.

More than 4 gigawatts of nuclear and coal production has been withdrawn across the MISO network by winter 2021, according to NERC, and not many resources have been added in its place.

As supply has decreased, consumers Demand for electricity continued to grow with expanding regions and a push for electrification such as electric vehicles and furnaces.

This presents significant risks.

Reports have warned of possible outages at both winter and summer. But one common feature is that the risk is even greater during extreme weather events, be it prolonged cold or high temperatures. This type of weather causes demand to increase, at the same time that production sources are at greater risk of complications and failure.

More renewables continue to be built to fill those gaps: Wind and solar generation are projected to serve 60 percent of MISO's annual load by 2041, the operator said. But solving the problem is not so simple. ONE separate report published by MISO late last year he said that as more and more solar and wind farms come online, it is becoming more complex and difficult to design and operate the power grid.

“MISO is fuel and resource type agnostic, but we've been making a strong case that the rapid withdrawal of highly available resources … is a growing risk,” Morris told IndyStar.

In Wisconsin, three of the state's largest coal plants are expected to operate longer than originally planned due to supply constraints. This follows Madison-based Alliant Energy and Milwaukee-based We Energies announced last June that it will delay retirements and delay deadlines for the development of new renewable energy projects.

Mesh upgrade is key

Renewables may not be dispatchable—meaning they can't be turned on or off whenever needed—but they are programmable. Based on weather patterns and models, operators of solar panels and wind turbines can predict fairly accurately when these sources will produce electricity.

As technologies to capturing and storing excess electricity continue to improve, experts say renewable energy sources will soon be able to meet much of the region's energy needs.

The biggest issue is upgrading infrastructure, according to Michael Goggin, vice president at Grid Strategies, an energy consulting firm. The grid is used for power coming from large central plants, but with more renewables the power supply is more dispersed, so transmission has to be covered.

There are hundreds of pending renewable energy projects across the region waiting to get the green light to connect to the MISO grid, and dozens have since retired seeing little progress or costs skyrocketing.

“We can't bring in new resources fast enough,” Goggin said. “Transmission barriers are the only real barrier to bringing renewables and storage online.”

Upgraded and expanded transmission not only helps connect more renewables, but also makes the grid more resilient to better get electricity to where it's needed most.

MISO said it is focused on ensuring the pace of fleet transformation aligns with demand for power. To make this happen and update the grid system, MISO has announced major transport investments. The price tag for the first phase is over $10 billion and an additional $20 billion is expected to be announced in the coming years.

The wind prevailed during the winter storm

Some consumer and environmental advocates worry that reports and concerns about grid vulnerabilities are being used to push a narrative that renewables are unreliable and fossil fuels are not.

In Indiana, for example, several legislations have been suggested it would add an additional step before a coal plant is retired or extend incentives for utilities to build large natural gas plants.

Kerwin Olson, executive director of the consumer advocacy group Citizens Action Coalition, said he agrees that the uncertainties raised in the MISO and NERC reports should not be ignored. He also doesn't want them to be too bloated in a way that slows down the transition to cleaner energy.

“Is it really terrible and the lights are going to go out or is everything good? I think it's somewhere in the middle,” Olson said. “We have to be careful and careful and make sure we get this transition right, but we can't overlook moving away from fossil fuels for our economy and our environment.”

In fact, during the recent winter storm Elliott, which brought record cold temperatures and blizzard conditions to much of the country just before Christmas, millions of customers were forced to endure outages and the eastern power grid was stressed – just as the NERC report had warned.

But MISO did very well, Goggin said. There was a “big drop” in gas supplies during that period, the grid analyst said, but Wind production was very strong with the cold air coming in — “that helped and for MISO it was very important.”

MISO was even able to export some of its power to other affected grids, including the Southeast: “States kept the lights on in the Tennessee Valley,” Goggin said. Some wind farms actually had to reduce their output because transmission wasn't able to move it, he added.

A changing climate continues to cause more severe weather events of any kind, experts said, and most people agree it underscores the need for a reliable energy system. Goggin said there is no one-size-fits-all solution.

“Having a diverse power supply is important,” he said, “and a key part of the solution is renewables and storage and transmission, which gives you a very reliable power supply.”

Jim Malewitz of Wisconsin Watch contributed reporting. Call IndyStar reporter Sarah Bowman at 317-444-6129 or email sarah.bowman@indystar.com. Follow her Twitter and Facebook: @IndyStarSarah. Connect with IndyStar environmental reporters: Sign up The Scrub on Facebook. IndyStar's environmental reporting work is made possible through the generous support of the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.