The “Lost Winter” it affects trade in the area: ice fishing opportunities are limited, ski areas struggle and winter events that depend on snow cannot continue.
Winter is still a month or two away, but the forecast is promising little promise of prolonged cold. The exceptionally warm winter fits into a long-term trend toward milder winter weather due to human-induced climate change.
The warmest winter on record so far
Most of the Great Lakes region is experiencing its warmest winter on record, including much of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and parts of surrounding states. Many additional locations in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic are also experiencing one of their warmest winters. Warmth extends into central Canada. The temperature in Winnipeg was at least 5 degrees Celsius (9 Fahrenheit) above normal for 24 consecutive days.
An examination of Cumulative Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) from the Midwest Regional Climate Center classifies winter severity as “mild” — the mildest level on its five-point scale — from the northern plains to the mid-Atlantic. Fargo, ND; International Falls, Minn.; Minneapolis; Sault Ste. Marie, Mich.; Toledo? and Syracuse, New Yorkare among the cities experiencing a record mild winter.
Data is recorded by the Southeast Regional Climate Center shows how unusually warm it was in some cities:
- Fargo — 13.8 degrees above normal
- Minneapolis — 10.7 degrees above normal
- Green Bay, Wis. — 9.5 degrees above normal
- Alpena, Mich. — 8 degrees above normal
- Binghamton, NY — 7.8 degrees above normal
- Caribou, Maine — 7.1 degrees above normal
“Milwaukee was above freezing [for highs] most of winter (67/75 days) and low temperatures in Milwaukee are nearly 10 degrees above normal,” Chris Vagasky, director of Wisconet, a network of weather stations in Wisconsin, wrote in an email.
Minneapolis has seen a record 23 consecutive days with high temperatures above zero. it is as mild as they have been reports of ticks at a time when normal highs are in the mid-20s.
Meteorological winter — defined as December through February — is about “two weeks away, but so far this month the state is running an amazing 20 F above normal (based on preliminary data),” said Steve Vavrus, state climatologist of Wisconsin. an email on Monday. “I would say it's likely that this winter will be Wisconsin's warmest.”
Given the mild weather, it's no surprise that ice cover across the entire Upper Midwest and Great Lakes basin is at historic lows. As of Tuesday, Great Lakes ice cover was at less than 3 percent.
“To date, it's the lowest ice cover ever seen,” said Bryan Mroczka, a scientist at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.
Modern ice records for the Great Lakes date back to 1973, when monitoring by weather satellites began. Since then, the ice cover has been on a downward trend.
“On average, there has been a 5 percent reduction in ice per decade. It has decreased by 25 percent since the 1970s,” Mroczka said. “The Great Lakes have lost about 27 days of ice, almost a month.”
Although warmer winters may still characterize Arctic hot spots, human-induced climate change is reducing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme cold. This year's El Niño climate is amplifying the heat, but Mrotska said there have been unusually low ice years without El Niño.
Snow is also sorely lacking across most of the northern tier of the Lower 48. Large parts of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast are 20 inches or more below average.
“Nashville has received more snow this winter than Minneapolis,” Vavrus said. Indeed, snowfall in Music City reached 7.6 inches in January, compared to 7.3 inches in Minneapolis so far.
Minneapolis' snow total so far is the lowest on record through Feb. 13 and more than two feet below average.
To the east in Marquette, Mich., 72.6 inches of snow so far this season may sound like a lot, but the year-to-date average is 127 inches.
There has been no snow on the ground in Burlington, N.D., for the first 13 days of February for the first time in records dating back to 1895. The northern New England city has received 27.9 inches so far this winter, compared to the norm of 54.7 inches.
Because the absence of winter matters
The absence of snow and ice puts a strain on areas that rely on them as a source of income, exercise and recreation. It has forced the cancellation of several events around Minneapolis, including its last weekend USA Lake Hockey ChampionshipThe Burnsville Polar Fest and Minnesota Ice Palace. In northern lower Michigan, the Black Lake winter sturgeon fishing season has been canceled. The University of Wisconsin Winter Carnival restored due to the lack of ice and snow.
Agriculture is also tested. As an example, vines appear as they usually do in March or April. This could make them more vulnerable to damaging frosts in the coming weeks.
And in a region where winter sports are a way of life, thin ice is a danger.
“Anyone doing activities on the ice should be extremely careful and always check the conditions before going,” Vagasky said.
Mroczka added that the lack of nearshore ice in the Great Lakes is a concern when late winter and spring storms hit because the ice acts as a buffer against coastal waves. Without ice, erosion increases, as does the risk of damage to infrastructure and property.
The severity of winter is lessening, but don't count it out completely
In mid-February, it is premature to conclude that winter will not attempt to return. Ice on the Great Lakes tends to peak in late February or early March, as does snow depth in the region. In some years, punishing cold and snow have hit well into April and May.
The short-term forecast calls for a few cold days late this week before generally mild weather over the next 10 days. Beyond that, the forecast is uncertain.
But looking ahead to future seasons, the outlook is not bright for winter lovers. The season is shrinking dramatically in length and average temperatures are rising.
Every winter won't necessarily look like this one, as there can be a lot of variability from year to year. Just last winter, many parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes saw above-average snowfall, for example. However, the trend towards milder and shorter winters means that seasons like this are likely to become more common.
According at the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the winter season has warmed two to three times faster than the summer.
“Increasingly, outbreaks in the Arctic are of shorter duration,” Mroczka said. “These lakes are huge, and it takes a long, steady pattern of cold weather to freeze them over.”
“The cold is still brutal sometimes every winter, but it just doesn't last long,” he added.
