The historic heart of the Republican Party, particularly at the presidential level, is in the Midwest. The party was founded in the Midwest, drew its early leadership primarily from the Midwest, and its success at the presidential level almost always depended on a Midwest victory. It's entirely fitting that Donald Trump's presidency will likely rise or fall on his ability to repeat his strong performance in the Midwest in 2016.
First, let's define “Midwest.” I am interested here in the Midwest as a political rather than a cultural entity, with its heart in the five states of the old Northwest Territory between the Mississippi and Ohio rivers: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin. To that, I would add one of the original 13 colonies (Pennsylvania) and two states acquired with the Louisiana Purchase (Iowa and Minnesota). These states form a traditionally cohesive political region, with the Upper Midwest trio of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa as a kind of subregion that reflects their unique demographic and cultural trends (many Scandinavians, extremely high voter turnout, long progressive traditions). They share a regional identity despite some obvious distinctions: Pennsylvania has the decidedly Eastern city of Philadelphia, Indiana has more cultural ties to the South than the others, and Illinois has been unusually dominated of late by Chicago, while Iowa is extremely rural. . The Midwest as a cultural region could easily be defined as including both Missouri and the Great Plains states of Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, but these regions have their own distinct political histories (Missouri is politically much further south than the others).
Historically, Midwestern states, except for Pennsylvania, shared a common border identity in the years between the Revolution and the Civil War. Western Pennsylvania was the frontier during the French and Indian War, which began there. Given the origins of the Republican Party, these states were distinguished by the fact that Pennsylvania was the original home of American abolitionism, and the rest were established as free states outside the territory where slavery had been outlawed early by the federal government. In the century after the Civil War, they grew into the heart of American industry, and in recent decades have struggled with the decline of heavy industry in the Rust Belt.
Consider, through the lens of the Electoral College, how Republicans have historically dominated this district in times of party strength and seen it slip away in times of party weakness:
Overall, Republicans since 1856 have won a majority of the electoral votes in all of these states except Minnesota. In Illinois alone they have won less than 60 percent of those votes. The New Deal swept the entire region overwhelmingly to Franklin D. Roosevelt and ended the Republican hammer for good – especially in Minnesota, which went Democratic in 1932 for the first time in its history, but since then has only been won by Eisenhower and Nixon. Since 1948, the district has become more divided, with Democrats dominating Minnesota, Republicans dominating Indiana, and a closer edge for Republicans in Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan, and Democrats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. He was once again part of the Republican coalition from Eisenhower to Reagan and in 1988 behind George H. W. Bush. After 1992, however, only Indiana was more Republican than Democrat, and only Ohio—traditionally the must-win state for any Republican—was particularly close.
George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 became the only Republican ever to win the White House without winning the Midwest. Indeed, Richard Nixon in 1968 was the only other Republican to win with less than 60 percent of the district's electoral vote. It was a crucial district: Grover Cleveland in both of his victories and Woodrow Wilson in 1916 are the only Democrats to win without winning the Midwest. But it has usually swung along. In only four elections has the district been more closely divided than a 60/40 electoral vote split: 1976 (52-48 Carter over Ford), 1948 (56-44 Truman over Dewey), 1856 (57-43 Buchanan over Frémont), and 1968 (59-41 Nixon over Humphrey). In only one of those races, in 1948, was there no candidate from the Midwest.
The importance of both the Midwest and the West in Republican history tends to be neglected by the obsessive focus on Southern political history, but is reflected in the party's selection of candidates and the election of presidents. Of the seventeen Republicans elected president (not counting Ford or Arthur, neither of whom won an election), only Trump and Calvin Coolidge never lived west of the Ohio River. Ten of the seventeen lived in the Midwest: Lincoln (Illinois), Grant (Ohio and Illinois), Hayes (Ohio), Garfield (Ohio), Benjamin Harrison (Indiana), McKinley (Ohio), Taft (Ohio), Harding (Ohio) . ), Hoover (Iowa), and Reagan (Illinois and Iowa). Eight lived in the West, the Great Plains, or the Southwest: Grant (Oregon), Teddy Roosevelt (the Dakotas), Hoover (California), Eisenhower (Texas and Kansas), Nixon (California), Reagan (California), and the Bushes (Texas ). Expanding the field to party nominees, Trump is only the third, after Dewey in 1948 and 1944, Charles Evans Hughes in 1916, and James G. Blaine in 1884, never to have lived west of Ohio: Romney ( Michigan and Utah), McCain (Arizona), Dole (Kansas), Ford (Michigan), Goldwater (Arizona), Willkie (Indiana), Landon (Kansas), Frémont (California) all did.
Trump's eastern roots did not prevent him from winning 73 percent of the Midwestern electoral vote, the best Republican showing since 1988. This shift was foreshadowed, of course, during the Obama era by the political successes of Scott Walker , Pat Tomei, Mike Pence, John Kasich, Rick Snyder, Ron Johnson, Rob Portman, Mark Kirk, Tom Corbett and others, as well as the national prominence of John Boehner and Paul Ryan as Speakers of the House. The Republicans' mixed but generally poor performance in the Midwest in 2018 (wins in Iowa and Ohio gubernatorial races, but losses in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) may be an ominous sign.
The Midwest has been declining as a share of the national population for decades and stands to lose five electoral votes (one each in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota) by 2024 if current census projections hold. Its centrality to Republican politics may suffer further as power shifts to the more diverse Sun Belt states of Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. For now, however, the party will make its stand on its historical base.
