Warm winter threatens recreation revenue in Upper Midwest

A record-warm winter is drying up revenue in the Midwest.

In Minnesota, organizers closed a lucrative winter arts festival early, losing tens of millions of dollars in expected profit. In Wisconsin, the rural towns that are usually overrun by snowmobilers and ice fishermen this season are asking for help from the state after missing about $6.5 million in projected revenue in December and January alone.

And in Michigan, popular ski resorts have existed forced to rely almost entirely on snowmaking machines just to stay open, raising concerns about the state's $12 billion outdoor recreation industry.

The lack of snow has even put a long-awaited international cross country ski tournament in jeopardy from returning to the United States this year. The International Ski Federation's Cross-Country World Cup Tour, which hasn't been held in the U.S. since 2001, is set to advance this weekend in Minneapolis—weather permitting, that is.

With the Twin Cities on track to see the snowiest winter on record, the event faced possible cancellation earlier this month. The metro area, which usually gets about 20 inches of snow so far, has received a paltry 5.3 inches so far this winter. Organizers came to the rescue with truckloads of motorized snow, which they covered with protective blankets to keep it from melting amid temperatures in the Twin Cities that reached 51 degrees Fahrenheit last week.

“Right now, it doesn't seem ideal,” said Claire Wilson, executive director of the Loppet Foundation, which organizes the competition. he told The Associated Press last week. “We're all crossing our fingers and toes.”

Across the Midwest, below-average snowpack and above-average temperatures this winter have hampered the busiest months for many rural communities that depend on seasonal tourism and a thriving outdoor recreation industry. The culprit, climate scientists say, is obvious: A rapidly warming planet combined with a particularly strong El Niño made 2023 the hottest year on record, with 2024 expected to be another hot year. In January alone, Rochester, Minnesota experienced a 66-degree swing, hitting temperatures of -14 on January 15th and 52 on January 31st.

“After looking at the 2023 climate analysis, I have to stop and say the findings are stunning,” said Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. he said in a statement last month. “Not only was 2023 the warmest year in NOAA's 174-year climate record, it was also the warmest by far.”

“A warming planet means we need to be prepared for the effects of climate change happening here and now, such as extreme weather events becoming more frequent and more severe,” Kapnick added. “We will continue to see records broken and extremes increase until emissions are zero.”

The effects of the milder winters were particularly felt in Minnesota, said Stefan Less, a researcher at the University of Minnesota's Department of Soil, Water and Climate.

Minnesota has already warmed about 3 degrees Fahrenheit—more than 1.5 degrees Celsius—since the industrial revolution, according to the state Department of Natural Resources. State figures show that too that Minnesota winters are distinctly warmer, with the number of extremely cold days significantly reduced since the 1940s. Temperatures of -40℉ were recorded in 88 percent of winters between 1944 and 1993. Between 1995 and 2017, the number that fell to 59 percent, and temperatures have yet to drop that low this winter in Rochester.

ONE University of Minnesota Study 2022which Liess co-authored, also predicts that the number of days with snow cover will decrease as the state continues to warm, with winter snow depth projected to decrease by more than 12 centimeters on average by the end of the century. Another study found that Minnesota's warming climate could cause the state to lose much of its iconic boreal forest in the coming decades, with “future conditions more like Kansas.”

An important caveat, Liess noted, is that not every winter will be as unusually warm as this one. Climate change is making Minnesota winters more erratic, he said, and the general pattern will be occasional years where the state is unusually wet and cold with longer stretches of dry and mild winters in between.

This instability is partly due to climate change making the jet stream less stable, which allows icy Arctic air to flow further south – a phenomenon often referred to as the polar vortex.

But, Liess said, Minnesota is one of the fastest-warming states in the U.S. and is set to experience more frequent periods of mild winter weather as rising carbon emissions raise global temperatures. That trend could force Minnesota companies and towns that depend on tourists to rethink their business models going forward, he said, such as offering trail hiking opportunities instead of snowmobiling and skiing in drier winters.

In fact, with little snow this winter to attract the usual crowd of outdoor enthusiasts, some northern Minnesota resorts have done just that. “We're lucky at Bearskin that we still had cross country ski trails and enough snow to move it,” Sue Anderson McCloughan, who runs a hotel along Minnesota's 57-mile Gunflint Trail. he said in a social media post last week. “But other resorts have pivoted — ice skating, winter luau events, hiking events.”

It's not just businesses that are suffering from the state's evolving climate, Leiss said. Some Native American communities rely on ice fishing and moose hunting during the winter, he said, but moose numbers are expected to decline as the climate warms, and it's impossible to ice fish if the lakes aren't frozen.

“Species that can survive severe winters don't do well when the winter is very warm,” Liess said. “And when those species disappear, then of course that affects the livelihoods of the people who depend on those species.”