If Donald Trump ends up facing Joe Biden in 2020, will be displayed as a fight for the hearts and souls of white working-class voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and my home state of Michigan.
But what do these workers want and need? The President and his allies on the right offer a mix of economic nostalgia, hardline nativism and trade wars. Many on the left (though not Biden himself) promise a guaranteed income for underemployed and unemployed populations.
However, the evidence shows that most of these voters ultimately want the “dignity of work” through a well-paid job. With labor markets tightening and employers facing skills gaps—even in places like Detroit, Cleveland and others in the former Rust Belt—the only path to that good job and dignity is through higher levels of postsecondary education.
Our local workers are proud to have been the engine of the US economic engine for much of the 20th century. During the Midwest's heyday, its high school graduates could move directly into jobs that did not require higher education. During the inevitable downturn in highly cyclical industries, many took a community college course or two, but often did not complete a post-secondary certificate.
Therefore, one of the many legacies of the Midwest's leadership in the industrial economy (and a great irony for a region that produces so much of the nation's talent) is the highest share of workers in most of our states and communities with only a high school diploma. they lack the greater financial benefits and security that postsecondary credentials tend to provide. As shown in Figure 1, 30% of workers in Midwest states overall—and 36% in Pennsylvania and 34% in Indiana and Ohio—have only a high school diploma, compared to a national average of 28%.
Today the region's workers face an economy that requires more skills and technical training beyond high school. Beginning 40 years ago, under competitive pressures to cut costs and improve quality, the region's employers dramatically restructured their business models, leading to the loss of many high-paying, lower-skill jobs in Midwest communities. Where once five workers bolted fenders on a car assembly line, today one worker with a higher level of education and training can program and monitor robots to do the same amount of work.
Over the past decade, the threat posed by these “predictable natural”[1] jobs have accelerated as demand for digital skills increases. Recent work by my Brookings colleague Mark Muro highlights the risks to workers in occupations defined by ordinary physical and cognitive skills, such as producing, transporting, and preparing food. Figure 2 shows how Midwestern states have above-average percentages of workers in two of the occupations at high risk of automation likely to disappear within a very few years.
The Midwest has already experienced the largest concentration of “robot takeovers” in its manufacturing. our states use half of the industrial robots nationally, with very high concentrations in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. That's another reason why, according to Georgetown University Education and Workforce Center99% of all new jobs created since the Great Depression require some formal education beyond high school.
In response, states and communities are focusing on increasing enrollment and completion rates in postsecondary credentials that have market value. An important initiative has helped community colleges and universities in states like Michigan organize new institutional integration efforts and College Success Networks to improve student outcomes, especially for working adults.
Meanwhile, more governors-including newly elected Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan— set state goals for postsecondary credential attainment. Here again, efforts are focused on the large population of adult workers as the main target for certification.
The growing calls among Democratic presidential candidates for “free college” are certainly welcome and could significantly affect the nation's growing divide in opportunity based on income and geography. But those calls aren't always being made, or heard, by working adults in aging Midwestern states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. They make up the bulk of the population that higher education must reach if states are to meet ambitious attainment targets.
If the promise of free college can also include guaranteed access to the skills today's workers need to get and keep a good job, that might deliver exactly what working-class voters in Michigan and at large want and deserve most. part of the Midwest.
Chris Baldwin of the University of Michigan contributed to this post.
[1] As defined by McKinsey, 2017. What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills and wages
