Those were difficult years for farmers. Milk and livestock spoiled or went unsold during the initial pandemic lockdown. And President Donald Trump's bruising trade wars have led to retaliation and bans on US farm exports.
But in Wisconsin, a battleground state in next week's election, farmers remain among the president's strongest supporters, as they do in states like Ohio and Michigan. While their numbers are modest – farmers make up 9% of eligible voters in Wisconsin – their votes are eagerly sought by Republican activists seeking to offset their expected losses in suburban areas.
Why we wrote this
Farmers are an important rural constituency whose support for President Trump has remained despite his trade wars that have reduced exports.
Republicans can count on Terry Hock's vote. He's a Wisconsin dairy farmer who applauds President Trump for standing up to China. “He's the only one who ever stood up against it, or any foreign country,” he says. “I also like the fact that he's an entrepreneur.”
The Trump administration has also ensured that a generous amount of federal aid will flow to farmers whose exports have suffered. Last year payments from the federal government made up about 40% of farmers' incomes.
But there are other reasons why farmers support Mr. Trump and are wary of his challenger's agenda. Brigette Leach, a vegetable farmer in Michigan, is worried about the Democrats' Green New Deal proposals. “Anything that looks or sounds like the Green New Deal – I don't see anything in it that's good for agriculture,” he says.
In the signage war, there is no contest on the back roads of Wisconsin. As combines cut the last of the corn and flocks of geese crack the gray sky, the countryside blooms with blue “Trump Pence 2020” signs promising to “Keep America Great.”
Farming has been less than stellar in recent years. Hurt by trade wars and the disruptions of COVID-19, many crop farmers and ranchers have struggled.
Last spring, dairy farmers threw away milk they couldn't sell. Pig farmers could not send their animals to market. And many farmers have gone out of business, especially in Wisconsin, where the number of dairy farms continues to decline and the good years are distinguished from the bad only by the rate of decline.
Why we wrote this
Farmers are an important rural constituency whose support for President Trump has remained despite his trade wars that have reduced exports.
Yet despite all the hardships of the Trump era, farmers remain among the president's staunchest supporters, reflecting both Republican trends in rural America in general and farm support in particular for President Donald Trump's positions on deregulation, the trade and related issues. In battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, farmers are a demographic that still matters, even as the broader tide has turned against Mr. Trump's path to winning a second term. (In Wisconsin, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has maintained a steady lead in the polls, according to the Real Clear Politics rolling average showing him 6 percentage points.)
President Trump is “finally standing up to China,” says Terry Hawk, a dairy farmer in Outagamie County, about 10 miles west of Green Bay. Mr. Hoke was driving a skid steer in his yard on a recent morning when he stopped to talk about the election. “He's the only one who ever stood up against it, or any foreign country,” he says. “I also like the fact that he's an entrepreneur.”
Then there are the payments. Under Mr. Trump, the federal government has made unprecedented extras expenditure on farmers – $19.3 billion in total in 2018 and 2019 – to soften the blow from foreign tariffs on agricultural exports. The USDA estimates that the government subsidized 40% of farmers' incomes last year.
Richard Mertens
Farmers also received big payments this year from the CARES Act, designed to shore up an economy battered by the pandemic. In Wisconsin, more than 15,000 farmers received payments averaging $3,300 per person, according to the state Department of Revenue.
“We had a bit of a hit in March when this pandemic hit, but we've bounced back,” says Mr Hoke, who has 75 cows. “I'm fine.”
No doubts
As a group, farmers are reliably conservative voters, and the ups and downs of the Trump years haven't changed their politics. “There is little evidence of a farm revolt against Mr. Trump,” writes Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, in a recent report on Wisconsin. “Farmers are much more Republican than non-farmers, so most support Trump,” he writes.
Duane Stateler, who raises pigs in east-central Ohio, says he has no doubts about voting for the president again.
“I think by far the farmers in my area and across the state are in favor of the Trump administration continuing,” says Mr. Stateler, who sends 16,000 hogs to market each year. In 2019, pork producers suffered when China, the world's largest pork consumer, temporarily stopped buying US pork in retaliation against US tariffs. Then, COVID-19 forced the closure of some meat plants.
“We had gotten over the trade crisis and things were starting to pick up,” says Mr. Stateler. “There was still optimism, just as the shutdown happened.”
Ultimately, however, pork exports rose 9% in 2019. In January, Mr. Stateler joined other pork producers at the White House on the signing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which should help both hog and dairy exporters.
When COVID-19 hit, Mr. Stateler reduced the protein in his pigs' feed so they wouldn't gain weight, buying him time until demand recovered. And although Mr. Stateler had a close friend who was hospitalized for COVID-19, he does not blame Mr. Trump for his handling of the pandemic.
“I don't think anyone could have done anything different,” he says. “You can't blame that on one person.”
Reduction of “burdensome” regulations
Brigette Leach, a farmer in Climax, Michigan, another battleground state, says she will also vote for Mr. Trump, citing the rollback of environmental and other regulations.
“I wish he wouldn't tweet so much sometimes,” she says. “But on the other hand, that's almost trivial.”
Mrs. Leach, who with her husband grows vegetables for direct sale to consumers and restaurants, serves on the regional board of the Michigan Farm Bureau. At meetings, when farmers are asked “What keeps you up at night?” Their top answer is usually regulation.
“The food safety regulations are a bit onerous,” he says. “If [our operations] they get much bigger, they get more burdensome and more expensive.”
Like other farmers, she is wary of the influence of Green New Deal advocates in a Biden administration, although Mr. Biden has disavowed the plan. “Anything that looks or sounds like the Green New Deal – I don't see anything in anything that bodes well for agriculture,” says Ms Leach.
Not all farmers stand with Mr. Trump, of course. “I've been against Trump from the beginning,” says Jacob Rieke, a pig farmer in Fairfax, Minnesota. “I always saw him as an awful person. I think he's done a tremendous job for farmers.”
Richard Mertens
Voting Libertarian
But some who reject Mr. Trump are still unwilling to embrace Biden.
Dan Diederich, a dairy farmer near De Pere, Wisconsin, says he plans to vote for the Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen. Standing in a muddy pasture, with sandhill cranes humming in the background, Mr. Diederich expressed skepticism about Mr. Trump's trade policies. “My gut feeling is that we're worse off,” he says. “But someone has to stand up to China. We had Obama president for eight years. Follow China? No. It got worse. I wholeheartedly believe that Biden will not face China.”
A committed environmentalist – he plants crops widely and believes more needs to be done against climate change – Mr Diederich favors government incentives over regulations to achieve environmental goals.
“The Democrats have been making a lot of noise in recent years with their environmental talk that farmers don't like,” he says.
Outagamie County farmer Jerry Beese says he worries about trade wars and dislikes Mr. Trump's approach. “I think he'll have to wait before he makes up his mind,” she says. But the administration's policies have pleased him. “They're trying to bring jobs back to the United States.”
However, Mr. Biese is a realist. Farmers represent a shrinking group – just 9% of Wisconsin voters – and know firsthand some of the anti-Trump sentiment in the state. “I have a daughter-in-law, if you call her 'Trump,' the hair just stands up on the back of her neck,” he says. “I have a granddaughter the same way.”
“I hope he wins,” says Mr. Biese, perched on his tractor with its hood up against the north wind. “But in my opinion, I don't think he will.”
